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· Posted on
February 21, 2024

Oatly's forecasted revenue has dipped and investors soured like a 90-day-old carton of oat milk

Oatly has warned of a change in its forecasted revenue for the upcoming year because "oat milk is more expensive than dairy milk".

What's the key learning?

  • Oatly had forecasted revenue of over $800m US for the year but that's looking more like $700m US.
  • The dip in forecasted revenue is part of a downward trend for plant-based protein companies as consumers rein in spending.
  • Generally, oat milk tends to be 2.5 times the cost of dairy milk.

👉 Background: Let’s be honest.. Oat milk was not really a thing before Oatly bustled its way onto the scene with its cute packaging and frothy frothy ‘milk’. It also drew in some serious celeb investors like Oprah, Jay Z and former head of Starbucks Howard Schultz.

👉 What happened: But now, Oatly has warned of a change in its forecasted revenue for the upcoming year. It had forecasted revenue of over $800m US for the year, but that’s looking more like $700m US. Woops.

👉 What else: And it’s part of a downward trend for plant-based protein companies as consumers rein in spending.

What's the key learning?

💡As the cost of living rises, consumers are facing a real ethical dilemma.

  • Do I choose the expensive plant-based protein and burn a whole in my pocket?
  • Or do I choose OG meat and milk and save some moula?

💡Generally, oat milk tends to be 2.5 times the cost of dairy milk… and then chuck on the Oatly premium. According to Nielsen, plant-based meat is 2x as expensive as beef and 4x as expensive as chicken.

💡And Oatly isn't alone in this struggle. Recently, we’ve seen Beyond Burger report a 22 per cent decline in sales. So when the going gets tough, the tougher meat get going.

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